Science and Education - an ABC radio program.

 Interviewer.
One of the exciting tools for investigation and research that has come to light in the past decade or so is the survey. Proponents of the survey technique point out that it can always be directed to favour of the month issues (and hence a there is higher probability of getting a grant), the actual mechanics of the process can be passed on to envelope stuffers and data punchers and a result is always guaranteed. The essence of a survey project is that apparently nebulous questions like "how do you feel about the future for your great grandchildrens' quality of life?" can produce quantitative answers. Furthermore very often the result can be expressed in such a way that good media coverage is assured. "University researcher finds that most newly-partnered couples fear for the quality of their potential great grandchildrens' education."

Dr Sally Form has recently used a novel survey technique to investigate the morale of staff at a local university. You may find her results surprising.

Good morning, Sally. Welcome to "Science and Education".

Sally
Good morning, Clark. It's my pleasure to be here. I must agree with your commendation of the survey as the research tool of the 21th century. Life is about perceptions, and that's what this tool exposes. It's all very well to gather so-called scientific data on say, salinity levels in a river system, but no amount of this sort of data will tell you what people really think.

Interviewer
Tell us how this new technique of yours came about.

Sally
I was wandering about the campus looking for a depressed area - you understand that surveys in depressed areas have a certain appeal about them - there's a broader scope for conclusions. In my travels I came across a staff tearoom. One item in the tearoom immediately caught my eye. It was a small blackboard with a list of names and numbers chalked in. You can imagine how my heart skipped at such a sight. It was ready-made survey data.

Interviewer.
It was Richard Hamming who said that the way to profit from good luck is to be prepared for it.

Sally
Hamming?

Interviewer
You found out about the source of these numbers?

Sally
Apparently some social group ...

Voice-from-offstage
the Campbell Bar

Sally
... had organised a pumpkin weight guessing competition. The list was of staff members' guesses. Now, the useful thing was, that the actual weight of the pumpkin was also marked on the board.

Interviewer (laughs)
After the guesses had been made we assume.

Sally (uncertain)
I suppose so. Anyhow of the 16 people who had guessed at the weight, 3 had underestimated the weight and approximately 13 had overestimated the weight.

Interviewer
Approximately 13?

Sally
There is always some uncertainty associated with this form of data. Furthermore the average guess was 30.80475 kilograms while the actual weight was 22.6 kilograms. So 81.25% of university staff are optimistic and the Group Optimistic Index is 30.80475 divided by 22.6, that is 1.158.

Interviewer
You're quoting to four significant figures from fairly coarse data?

Sally
Oh, my calculator showed eight significant figures, so that's what I put in my paper. The reviewers were very impressed.

Interviewer
Tell us more about this Optimistic Index.

Sally
The OI. It's a "is the glass half full or half empty?" thing. It's the way people view a situation.

Imagine someone between jobs. Well this person could view herself as not having a job at all; this would mean they had an OI of say, 0.6. On the other hand she could consider herself to be simultaneously occupying two positions and on simultaneous leave from both jobs; this would give her an OI of, say 1.6. It's just a matter of how you view it. We'd have to survey her to tighten up on the actual figure. A couple of 7 division Likert scale questions would do it.

Interviewer
I guess you use an odd number like 7 to give a clearly defined middle - to permit the possibility of an absolutely neutral answer?

Sally
No, we tried other odd numbers like 5 and 10, but they don't seem to give as many significant figures.

Interviewer
Oh.
Perhaps it would be a good time to move onto our next story. Thank you Dr. Sally Form.

Sally
Thank you, Clark.

Interviewer
Our next guest is Mr Agent from ....

Agent (breaking in)
... from the Campbell Bar, via Baker Street, Applied Science 2, 5:00 Fridays.

Interviewer
Mr Agent will speak about ...

Agent (breaking in)
... the Campbell Bar, via Baker Street, Applied Science 2, 5:00 Fridays.

Interviewer
... social interaction ...

Agent (breaking in)
... at the Campbell Bar, via Baker Street,
(the volume drops, his microphone has been switched off)
Applied Science 2, 5:00 Fridays.
(music over)

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